The time has finally come for the conclusion of UFC 310 as we’re set to bring you our betting prediction and pick for the Main Event Flyweight (125) Title bout. Champion Alexandre Pantoja of Brazil will welcome RIZN Champion Kai Asakura of Japan for a can’t miss battle for the belt. Check out our UFC odds series for our Pantoja-Asakura prediction and pick.
Alexandre Pantoja (28-5) has gone 12-3 en route to becoming UFC Champion. After securing the belt over Brandon Moreno last year, he’s since defended his title against Brandon Royval and Steve Erceg in consecutive unanimous decision efforts. He’ll try to notch his third title defense against a fellow champion. Pantoja stands 5’5″ with a 67-inch reach.
Kai Asakura (21-4) will be making his UFC debut in historic fashion as he fights for the Flyweight title. He’s a 13-3 Champion over at the RIZIN Fighting Federation based in Japan. He formerly held their belt in 2020 and recently earned it back over Juan Archuleta last December. He’ll look to make history with a win here. Asakura stands 5’8″ with a 69-inch reach.
Here are the UFC 310 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 310 Odds: Alexandre Pantoja-Kai Asakura Odds
Alexandre Pantoja: -265
Kai Asakura: +215
Over 2.5 rounds: -125
Under 2.5 rounds: -105
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Why Alexandre Pantoja Will Win
Alexandre Pantoja is a perfect example of how much better a fighter can become once they get their first taste of UFC gold. It’s taken him quite a long journey to get to this point and since beating Brandon Moreno, he’s looked better than ever against hungry contenders and a variety of competition. He’s arguably the most slept-on champion in the UFC, but his skills are undeniable with how efficiently he can finish the fight from anywhere. While Asakura serves as a worth challenger, the betting odds and resume fully back Alexandre Pantoja as the favorite to retain the belt in this one.
Alexandre Pantoja is 9-0 vs. current top 10 flyweights. #UFC310 pic.twitter.com/GHKuo00GN9
— DiaztwinsMMA (@DiaztwinsMMA) December 4, 2024
Alexandre Pantoja is one of the most aggressive fighters in the UFC and he wastes no time in fully engaging his opponent in chaotic fashion. He’s one of the best grapplers on the roster and his striking has improved by leaps and bounds since he first entered the UFC. As we’ve seen in his recent title fights, he also possesses and unbreakable will and will continue to march forward through any damage done on him. Expect a similar attitude from Pantoja as he looks to keep this one out of the judges’ hands.
Why Kai Asakura Will Win
Kai Asakura will be making UFC history in fighting for the Flyweight belt during his debut. He’s not just any prospect, however, as he’s one of the most notorious MMA fighters in all of Japan, building a wild resume of 21 pro wins with 16 finishes. 13 of those finishes have come by way of knockout and he’s most known for his blistering power and wild fighting style. He possesses a rare ability to knock opponents out with one punch and at this weight class, he’s already looking like a serious problem for anyone in the UFC.
Kai Asakura 21-4-0(13KO-3SUB-5DEC)
︎KO 62% in his winning
•Won by Manel Kape, Kyoji Horiguchi in 1st match
•Gd striker especially Knee to the Body
•Flyweight / Cage match since 2017#UFC #UFC310 #朝倉海 pic.twitter.com/vzzvnDlLOO— NightCap @MMA言語化ムリ
︎KO 62% in his winning
(@prowres_) The obvious question surrounding Kai Asakura is his level of competition in organizations like RIZIN and RoadFC not being up-t0-par with the level of competitors in the UFC. Still, Asakura has been undeniable no matter the opponent and he’s had extensive training with several UFC talents, namely Merab Dvalishvili. His takedown defense is impeccable and his striking is absolutely electric, so we’ll finally see if he’s ready for the biggest UFC stage.
Final Alexandre Pantoja-Kai Asakura Prediction & Pick
This is going to be a can’t-miss Main Event for how exciting both of these fighters are. Between them, they’ve combined for 34 finishes at the pro level and are considered two of the most dangerous flyweights on the planet at the moment.
Of course, Alexandre Pantoja is the clear favorite here due to his experience against the best flyweights in the UFC. If he’s able to remain patient and survive the chaos of Asakura, he should be able to cruise to a decision win in this one.
However, the energy around Kai Asakura has been apparent all fight week and he seems supremely confident in his ability to knock Pantoja out. His own defense is the only question in terms of him losing this fight, but he doesn’t have much to lose in his debut and I expect him to find the one opening needed to end this fight. Let’s take a chance on the underdog to make history in this one.
Final Alexandre Pantoja-Kai Asakura Prediction & Pick: Kai Asakura (+215)
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